On Tuesday, the Queensland Government delivered their final budget before the state election in October, and they certainly tried to reach as many Queenslanders as possible. Having already announced a variety of budget measures, Tuesday consolidated their cost of living relief while also allocating money for “decisions taken not yet announced” … aka election announcements.
Meanwhile federal Labor started the week with disaster polling results that saw the two major parties even at 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis. Not a great position for the government to be in at this point in the election cycle. While speculation of an early election is growing, today’s redistribution announcement by the AEC will surely be an important consideration for Albanese.
We’ll dive into the week’s big stories below, but first, here’s a quick look at what made headlines:
- Opposition Leader Peter Dutton confirms a federal coalition government will increase the minimum age that kids can access social media from 13 to 16 years old.
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang visits Australia this weekend marking the first visit by a Chinese Premier in seven years.
- Former Sydney high school teacher Chris Dawson lost his appeal after he was convicted of murdering his life Lynette in 1982.
- The iconic Leichhardt Oval in Sydney has been saved thanks to a $40 million funding injection from the federal, state and local governments.
- Matildas superstar Sam Kerr has resigned with Chelsea FC in the UK until the end of 2026.
- Ex-Olympian Scott Miller granted parole after three years behind bars for his role in a drug ring.
- A federal jury found Hunter Biden, son of US President Joe Biden, guilty of all three federal felony gun charges.
Politics
Dutton’s polling improves as voters mark down Labor
A landmark Newspoll released on Monday showed opposition leader Peter Dutton is closing in on Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister and revealed the Coalition’s primary vote is at its highest level in three years.
The polling was conducted after the government endured a horrid sitting fortnight in Canberra, where their attempts to spruik key initiatives from their recent budget were sidelined by worsening economic indicators and long-running failures of migration policy.
The two-party preferred vote is now sitting at 50-50 for the first time since the aftermath of the Voice referendum loss last year. Both the government and the Greens lost support over the fortnight, after the government and Coalition momentarily teamed up to slam the minor party’s promotion of antisemitism.
The polling confirmed the long-held belief that Australia is heading towards a hung parliament after the next election, with Labor predicted to lose at least five seats, forcing them into a coalition with the Greens or independents.
The opposition, while still miles away from securing a primary vote high enough to win back the seats required to form majority government, will be pleased with the turnaround in support for Peter Dutton, who many have declared ‘unelectable’.
Prime Minister elevates energy as key election issue
We mentioned last week that early election speculation was becoming louder, but the Prime Minister’s choice this week to attack the Coalition’s emissions targets and nuclear policy has all but drawn the battlelines for an early election fought on the government’s preferred territory of climate and energy policy.
The PM was responding to the opposition confirming they would, if elected, scrap the government’s 2030 renewable energy targets, saying they were unachievable and unhelpful. Albanese called a snap press conference on Monday to attack the Coalition, saying “Peter Dutton is worse on climate than Scott Morrison” and that they would pull out of the Paris Agreement.
Dutton later confirmed the Coalition would remain committed to the Paris pact, but the government’s campaign lines are clear.
Reframing the election to one about climate policy is a deliberate tactic by Labor to avoid debate about a worsening economy and border security failures, both issues on which they are highly vulnerable, and which play right into the Coalition’s strengths.
It’s believed the impact of higher interest rates for longer, worsening cost of living pressures and the potential for Australia to slip into a recession, will force Albanese to call an early election this year.
Union boss flexes his power
Victorian CFMEU boss John Setka launched an attack on the AFL this week calling for the sacking of head umpire Stephen McBurney. Mr Setka said the unions would launch a ‘work-to-rule’ campaign on all AFL related projects while Mr McBurney is employed by the AFL. However, the AFL is standing by their man rejecting Mr Setka’s demands and highlighting Mr McBurney’s “massive impact” on the AFL.
Mr Burney is the former building industry watchdog who initiated legal action against the unions during his time in the role. The previous Coalition Government established the Australian Building and Construction Commission to regulate behaviour and practices within the sector, and this largely included unlawful union activity. The current Labor Government abolished the ABCC very quickly after winning government in 2022.
The Prime Minister was quick to point out that it was he who was responsible for expelling Mr Setka from the ALP and said it was none of Mr Setka’s business what the AFL does. The PM called on Mr Setka to abandon the campaign, however when pressed about whether Mr Setka’s behaviour was “thuggery”, he failed to directly answer.
Despite these calls from the Prime Minister, Mr Setka has doubled down on the issue. He said they are going to “square the ledger for what McBurney did. We are going to teach people a lesson…If you want to betray us, you’re going to pay a price”.
AEC NSW redistribution
Today, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced the draft redistribution for NSW resulting in the abolition of a federal seat and significant changes to other boundaries. This comes a couple of weeks after the AEC announced that Victoria was losing the inner-city Melbourne seat of Higgins and Western Australia was gaining a seat.
Population growth in most of our capital cities has slowed so the boundaries are being redrawn to reflect the changes. As such, the AEC has proposed abolishing the inner-city seat of North Sydney, currently held by a Teal after defeating the liberal MP at the 2022 election. The neighbouring electorate of Warringah will lose a little over 15,000 voters in the north of the electorate and then gain 36,000 from the abolished seat of North Sydney. Most of the remaining North Sydney electorate will now fall into Bradfield, currently held by the Liberals.
The current sitting member for North Sydney said her priorities had not changed and she will stay focused for the rest of the term. But all eyes are on the Liberal Party to see how they respond, as they had already preselected a candidate for the seat who had a great chance of unseating the Teal member. Former international trade lawyer Gisele Kapterian was preselected earlier this year by the Liberal Party to contest the seat and she has been on the ground campaigning ever since. Ms Kapterian is exactly what the liberal party needs in federal parliament so if North Sydney is ultimately abolished, they will need to find her a winnable seat.
There are also boundary changes proposed for 39 of the states remaining 46 seats, with major changes to Hume, Riverina and Eden-Monaro.
Queensland
Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick on Tuesday unveiled a budget full of election sweeteners for voters who will head to the polls in under five months’ time.
Premier Steven Miles had declared this would be a cost of living budget, with the government confirming on Tuesday they would spend upwards of $11 billion next year on concessions for Queenslanders. This includes electricity bill rebates, lower public transport fares and motor vehicle registration costs, additional support for first home buyers and an increase in the value of and access to junior sport vouchers. Everyone gets a prize!
The Treasurer has also squirrelled away $184 million for an election war chest, with further announcements to be made in the coming months and during the campaign.
A new $3bn Homes for Queenslanders plan sets a target of 53,500 new social homes by
2046 and the government will spend an extra $1.28 billion over 5 years for community safety
measures in response to the state’s youth crime crisis.
With nearly all the major budget initiatives having been pre-announced over the past few weeks, there were few surprises, except to confirm the impact all these election presents will have on the budget bottom line.
While preserving an operating surplus this year of $562m, the government’s cash splash will result in a forecast deficit of $2.6bn in 2024-25, compared to the $135m surplus projected in last year’s budget.
Just as the Albanese Government’s budget did, it assumes the government’s short-term cost of living measures will bring down stubbornly high inflation, a notion thoroughly rejected by most economists. Pumping $11bn into the economy, while expecting it to artificially bring down CPI, is hopeful at best – fanciful at worst.
The LNP opposition have labelled it “a budget for the next 4 months, not the next 4 years”, while seizing on figures that show the unprecedented boost to the state’s income over the past four years because of coal royalty hikes has not translated into lower government debt.
Leader of the opposition David Crisafulli delivered his budget in reply yesterday, focusing on the housing crisis. Crisafulli announced a variety of measures to help with housing affordability and increasing supply. The key element was abolishing stamp duty for all new homes for first home buyers and raising the stamp duty concession threshold in full for existing homes up to $700,00 and partially up to $800,000 for first home buyers. Other announcements included a $2 billion fund to help local councils unlock land and enabling faith groups and charities to build homes on unused land.
The LNP stuck to their four priorities – cost of living, housing, health and youth crime – and avoided being distracted by Labor announcements or issues. Crisafulli reiterated the LNPs commit to remove detention as a last resort from the Youth Justice Act and highlighted the budget blowouts in health under the current government.
Overall, the budget-in-reply was safe and measured, just like it should be from an opposition. While this approach has attracted criticism of a ‘small target strategy’, history shows us that small target campaigns are often successful at the ballot box.
Global
Macron calls snap election after EU poll failures
The European elections, held over four days from Thursday to Sunday last weekend, saw far-right parties perform unexpectedly well right across Europe – most prominently in France.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s pro-European centrist party received only half the support of his rival Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party – with the latter picking up about 30 per cent of the vote.
In response, Macron called a snap poll to take place in two rounds on June 30 and July 7, hoping to call out the “danger” of the rise of nationalists in France and Europe.
Should Macron face defeat in the election, he will be forced to govern with a far-right Prime Minister – likely Marine Le Pen’s protégé, the youthful Jordan Bardella.
The election result could plunge France into chaos and uncertainty at the precise time they are set to host the Olympic Games in Paris, welcoming thousands of athletes and visitors from around the world. The potential for civil unrest, as seen on the streets of Paris just last year, is high on the mind of Olympics organisers.
International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach is playing down the impact of the elections on the Games, but many remain concerned.
Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz resigns
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was dealt a blow this week with the resignation of one of his key rivals, war cabinet minister Benny Gantz.
Gantz said Netanyahu’s decisions were “preventing … true victory” in Israel’s war with Hamas, calling for the Prime Minister to bring on early elections. His resignation had been expected for some time, after he repeatedly clashed with Netanyahu over his handling of the conflict.
The move will not have a material impact on Netanyahu’s governing coalition but will force him to rely more heavily on ultra-nationalist parties which back a full Israeli occupation of Gaza.
That will make ceasefire negotiations much more difficult for Netanyahu, who will now have to consider how those negotiations might impact his own grasp on power.
Sport and Pop Culture
Popular TV doctor dies in Greek Islands
The man famous for popularising the global dieting trend intermittent fasting was this week found dead on the Greek Island Stymi after heading out for a walk while on holiday with his wife.
The four-day search to locate Dr Michael Mosley made global headlines and there was an outpouring of grief when his death was confirmed early this week.
An autopsy confirmed the famous doctor died of natural causes, with reports suggesting he may have sat down for a rest before he died in the scorching 40 degree-plus heat.
It’s been revealed in his last interview just months ago, the 67-year-old father of four said he’d been inspired to change his diet and get healthy to avoid an early death like his father – who died at 74 with complications from diabetes.
Pay day for billionaire
After a successful boardroom negotiation, billionaire Elon Musk could be about to receive an enormous $84 billion payday, depending on the Tesla share price.
This is the second time the Tesla board has attempted to reward Mr Musk with such a huge payout, however a small investor previously took the company to court to stop the “unfair” payout and the Delaware Judge in the case agreed.
If successful this time, the deal will see Mr Musk receive the rights to around 300 million Tesla shares. The company has a current market capitalisation of $861 billion.
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