| We hope you had a relaxing and energising break over Christmas and New Year. As we head towards the start of the parliamentary year, we thought we’d take a look at what’s on the cards this year – and it’s quite a lot! From elections to Olympics, let’s get stuck in to some 2024 predictions. Politics gets back to basics In 2024, the Australian public will expect politicians to get back to basics and focus on the issues that impact their everyday lives – cost of living, education, roads and healthcare. Especially as the cost of living and the housing crises intensify, voters want politicians focused on the fundamentals – not political correctness and fringe issues. The October referendum demonstrated that the Albanese Government misread the mood of the electorate, and they will need to be mindful of this as they move into the campaign-half of the term. A federal election is expected in early-2025 so the government needs 2024 to be the year when they win back voters – they will do this by focusing on bread-and-butter issues. Australians care about how they are going to pay their increasing electricity bills, rising interest rates, whether their home or car is safe from intruders, that their children are receiving a high-quality education, and they have access to affordable healthcare when they need it. These are the issues keeping many Australians up at night. One just needs to look at U.S. politics, particularly the Republican Primaries, to see that voters don’t want politicians who are distracted by pleasantries and issues that do little to improve their day-to-day lives. They want politicians who understand their concerns and will fight for them no matter the cost. Prediction for 2024: Political parties who are successful in the polls and at the ballot box will be those who focus and address the core issues that voters care about – cost of living, roads, health and crime. Return of President Trump? What seemed inconceivable a few years ago is now looking increasingly likely: that 2024 will see a rematch of Trump vs Biden in the run for the White House. The former President’s strong showing in the Iowa caucuses this week, predicted by polls but believed by few, gave Trump strong momentum heading into New Hampshire next week. In what is largely a three horse race, after Vivek Ramaswamy pulled out on Monday night and endorsed Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are battling for second place. While DeSantis came a close second in Iowa, Haley is expected to poll well in New Hampshire and a win here will all but end DeSantis’ campaign. Haley is increasingly backed by donors as the best non-Trump alternative, evidenced by Trump’s escalating attacks on her record and policies. Haley’s electoral appeal is where Trump is vulnerable: women and well-educated Republicans from metropolitan counties. Trump’s grip on working class Republicans, as demonstrated in Iowa this week, is as strong as it was in 2016. To Washington and Wall Street’s dismay, Middle America is still Trump’s America. In multiple polls, Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head contest, though the White House is saying publicly that Trump is Biden’s best chance of victory in November. The US economy is strengthening, but voters are feeling the effects of the same cost of living crisis Australians are dealing with at home due to global supply chain pressures caused by the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Working class Americans felt Trump delivered for them last time – through tax cuts, a manufacturing-driven employment boom and strong border policies – and the chaos induced by the COVID pandemic has been easily forgotten. Trump’s escalating legal woes (he faces 91 felony counts across four criminal cases) are feeding ammunition to his strongest supporters, playing into the former President’s argument that the judicial and political systems are being used against him. Prediction for 2024: The 2024 election will be close and hard-fought, but if Trump sees off his challengers in the Republican primary race and lines up against Biden, we think it’s more likely than not we’ll see him back in the White House next January. The Queensland election will be a lot closer than people expect Three months ago, the Liberal National Party was in pole position to win the October 2024 Queensland state election and return to government for the first time since 2015. However, the change of Labor leader, and therefore Queensland Premier, might be just what Labor needed to get themselves back in contention. Late last year, several reputable polls suggested there had been a shift in voter sentiment, with concerns over issues like the cost of living, crime, and health influencing public opinion. As such, the LNP were leading most polls with an average primary vote of 40%. Labor found themselves polling at 34% and on a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP led 52% over Labor on 48%. However, election outcomes can be unpredictable, and the situation may change with a new Labor leader at the helm and as the election gets closer. The current polling data reflects the public’s sentiment at the time of the surveys, but it does not guarantee the final election result. Furthermore, Premier Steven Miles seems to be taking advantage of the opportunity to position his team as a ‘fresh start’ for Labor and remove the barnacles weighing down the previous leader – think 2032 Olympic games and associated infrastructure, DNA testing bungle, youth crime crisis, tax increases, and infrastructure cost blow-outs. Miles has seized the opportunity to reset the narrative and make changes where needed. He was also quick to respond to Queensland’s recent natural disasters and has been out-and-about talking to voters right across the state. While the polls might indicate a likely win for the LNP, it is a lot harder to see a path to victory when you break it down seat-by-seat. To form a majority government in Queensland, a party needs to win at least 47 seats out of the 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly. This means the LNP need to hold the 34 seats they currently hold and win an additional 14 seats to govern in their own right. Not an easy task! With the rise of Teal independents at the last Federal election, the LNP will also need to fight off well-funded Teal candidates in some of their safest seats. The Teals are currently working hard on the southern end of the Gold Coast where the LNP hold two state seats on less than 1.5% each. LNP leader David Crisafulli and his team will have a fight on their hands from Labor and the Teals. Prediction for 2024: The Queensland State Election will be closer than polls currently indicate and will see a hung parliament with independents holding the balance of power. Chalmers will deliver Labor’s second surplus budget When he handed down the mid-year budget update in December, the Treasurer stopped short of forecasting a second surplus this year, but the numbers showed that was almost a certainty. You can understand the hesitancy to claim the win early. Remember the Coalition’s ‘Back in Black’ budget that never was? Another global pandemic notwithstanding, Chalmers will confidently hand down another surplus budget in May, adding weight to the Government’s narrative they are the superior economic managers. The Treasurer, of course, has been gifted huge upticks in revenue owing to rising commodity prices and high tax receipts due to record high employment. But the healthier the budget bottom line, the more outstretched hands come knocking, and Chalmers will face increasing pressure from Labor MPs in marginal seats to deliver serious cost of living relief come budget time. The Prime Minister this week made his strongest commitment yet that he would not scrap the Coalition’s stage three tax cuts, set to come into effect in July. Both the PM and Treasurer have said repeatedly since the election in May 2022 that they have not changed their position on the tax cuts, after they promised during the election campaign not to repeal the package. But the Greens and an increasing number of the government’s own backbenchers have called on the Treasurer to dump them, or at least scale back tax relief for the nation’s highest earners. Expect those calls to intensify in the coming months. The PM and the Treasurer are both seasoned political operators, and both are acutely aware of the penalty they could face for breaking such a core election promise. They’re also savvy enough to know that not only do most voters favour tax cuts, but they’re also smart enough to work out that those saving the most tax are the taxpayers paying the most tax. Prediction for 2024: With an eye on the election in under a year’s time come May, the government’s third budget will look after its core constituency and will include cost of living relief payments or subsidies for the lowest income earners. The stage three tax cuts remain unchanged. Our Olympians will inspire us in Paris but debate will shift to Brisbane 2032 Despite the heartbreak of Matildas’ star Sam Kerr’s injury ahead of their Olympics qualifying matches, our Australian Olympians and Paralympians will head to Paris in July with the nation’s high hopes resting on their shoulders. Australians love their sport and they love to win, and a successful medal haul in Paris will inspire millions of local sports fans to chase their dreams. And after Paris, comes Los Angeles in 2028, and after that – it’s our turn. The Brisbane Olympics are already controversial, with newbie Premier Steven Miles setting up an independent panel to determine whether the government should proceed with a nearly $3bn rebuild of the Gabba stadium – having initially told the public it would cost around $1bn. Queensland’s Labor Party faces a serious threat from the Greens at October’s election, particularly in and around inner-city Brisbane which would cop the brunt of the enormous disruption that would be caused by a stadium rebuild in the heart of the city. The minor party has already been campaigning heavily against the government’s Olympics agenda. After former Victorian Premier Dan Andrews binned the Commonwealth Games citing cost blowouts, voters are asking themselves where and how they want their governments to be spending their money. If Queenslanders still can’t buy a home, get an ambulance to hospital in an emergency or pay their power bills in a few years’ time, how popular will the 2032 Olympics be? The government faces some tough decisions and is running out of time to make them. Prediction for 2024: The Miles Government will scrap the Gabba rebuild, and redirect funds to boosting major transport infrastructure ahead of the Games. The ‘Taylor Swift effect’ will boost the Australian economy Here is a fact no one ever imagined – Taylor Swift is providing an economic impact greater than the GDP of 50 countries! And in February, Australia will be the beneficiary of this economic boost. Taylor Swift will perform seven shows across Sydney and Melbourne and is expected to inject over $140 million into the Australian economy. This estimation takes into account various factors such as merchandise sales, spending on accommodation, dining, and transport by concert attendees. The average spending per person attending the concerts is estimated to be around $284. With thousands of fans expected to attend across the seven sold-out shows, including a significant number of interstate and international visitors, the economic boost is considerable. The interstate visitors are expected to spend about $185 per day on various expenses, while international visitors could spend close to $500 per day during their stay. The tour is not only expected to generate direct consumer spending but also to provide broader economic benefits. This includes increased demand for local businesses such as hotels, restaurants, and transportation services in Sydney and Melbourne. If we look at the spending patterns from concertgoers overseas, the Australian economy will see a much-needed boost. For example, The Eras Tour is estimated to generate about $4.6 billion in consumer spending in the U.S. economy alone. On average, attendees in the U.S. are spending around $1,300 per concert, which is almost double what fans had originally budgeted for the event. Smaller local economies are also benefiting from Taylor’s presence. For example, in Cincinnati, Swift’s two-day visit generated an estimated $92 million in net new local spending. Cities like Glendale, Houston, and Chicago also witnessed significant increases in hotel occupancy and local spending due to the concerts. Taylor’s tour comes to Australia as her stardom is at an all-time high. She’s normally in the headlines for writing songs about her relationships, but recently it’s her current relationship with NFL superstar Travis Kelce making headlines. The two have been together since Kelce attended one of her concerts in July 2023. Since then, Swift has attended numerous NFL games and brought a whole new audience (mainly female) to the NRL. In fact, the NFL is reporting record viewer numbers and merchandise sales with the Kelce brothers jersey’s the top two sellers. If you didn’t pick up from last year’s newsletters, the authors of this weekly update are huge Swifties and also NFL superfans. As such, we’ve been very invested in the recent pop culture and sport overlap. Prediction for 2024: Taylor Swift will finally find her happily ever after and marry NFL superstar Travis Kelce. ————————– We enjoy keeping you up-to-date with the important issues and encourage you to please reach out if there is any particular topic you’d like us to cover. |