| Voting has officially begun in Queensland and early exit polls are predicting a wipeout across the state. In fact, polling from ten booths indicates an enormous increase in the LNPs primary vote and, when you factor in predicted preference flows, at least three Labor ministers are likely to lose their seats. We were front-and-centre for the second leaders debate on Wednesday, and it was clear both leaders are going to fight until the very end. They have very different styles but neither leader was willing to acknowledge the ‘scare’ campaigns being run by their own party or affiliated organisations like unions. As such, during the final week of the campaign, voters should expect to see more negative advertisements spruiking these scare campaigns. In this edition: – Who went where: Leaders’ diary – Key Seat: Gaven – Miles tries to win voters over with free lunches – Criticism of the LNPs “small target” campaign intensifies |
| Who went where: Leaders’ diary Sunday was a big day for both campaigns with both leaders making campaign-defining announcements. The Opposition Leader David Crisafulli spent the day in his home city choosing the key seat of Gaven to launch the LNPs 100-day Plan. He was joined by the eight Gold Coast LNP members and the two candidates as he unveiled the plan which is basically a checklist of everything an LNP Government will do in the first week, month, by the end of the year and first 100 days. The plan covers areas such as youth crime, housing, health, and economic measures aimed at reducing the cost of living. Crisafulli then headed north to the Sunshine Coast where he made a series of local announcements including $30 million for the Tewantin Bypass and $10.4 million for eight neuro wellness hubs. While wanting to win back the seat of Caloundra that they surprisingly lost to Labor in 2020, they are also hopeful of winning the independently held seat of Noosa. The LNP is running an outstanding candidate who was the local mayor for a number of years and running a high-quality campaign against the popular local member. Both campaigns converged in Brisbane on Wednesday for the second leaders debate before Crisafulli headed back up to the battle ground seat of Townsville on Thursday. Townsville has been described as the youth crime epicentre so it wasn’t surprising to see the LNP announce a crime-related policy, committing to two remote youth rehab centres for repeat young offenders. He also visited his hometown of Ingham where he committed $973,000 for the Ingham Tennis Court Complex. The Premier kicked off Sunday in North Lakes (just outside Brisbane) announcing free lunches for primary students enrolled in Queensland public schools, estimated to cost taxpayers $1.4 billion. The announcement caught many off-guard as the Labor Government had previously rejected a very similar policy put forward by the Greens, with the then Education Minister saying the policy was “trying to solve a problem that does not exist”. Miles then made his way down to the Gold Coast where he was joined by a special guest – the Prime Minister. Many were surprised to see the PM hit the Queensland campaign trail, especially on the typically blue GC. The pair took a trip on the Light Rail highlighting the LNPs promise to review future stages, while Labor remains committed to deliver the project to the GC Airport. We were surprised to hear our old boss referenced by the PM when talking about Light Rail, especially given Steven Ciobo retired from politics almost six years ago. The Health Minister joined Miles in Rockhampton to announce $50 million for the Rockhampton Hospital emergency department and took aim at the LNPs health policy claiming it will lead to frontline cuts. Following the Brisbane debate, the Labor campaign headed north stopping in Mackay and Townsville. Mackay is of great concern for Labor with early exit polling overwhelmingly favouring the LNP. The longtime Labor MP is retiring and the LNP has seized the opportunity to try to turn the seat blue. Miles is continuing the campaign in Cairns on Friday and was joined by his wife for this visit. No doubt both leaders will continue to campaign hard over the final weekend and likely ramp up their travel (if that’s even possible) during the final week. |
| Key Seat: Gaven Gaven, Nerang, Mount Nathan, Highland Park and most of Pacific Pines and Carrara. Incumbent: Meaghan Scanlon (Labor) Margin: 7.8% Despite the healthy margin, Gaven is a true swing seat, tending to change hands when there is a change in government. Scanlon is a senior minister in the government and touted as a future leader of the party. She is seen by many within her community is a hardworking local member who is actively engaged in the community. However, she is unlikely to be able to withstand the predicted swing against the government at this election. Of 100 people polled leaving the Gaven pre-poll centre on Monday, 47% declared they voted LNP, 36% Labor, 12% One Nation and 5% for the Greens. If these results are replicated on election day, the LNP will win the only Gold Coast seat they don’t currently hold, likely resulting in wall-to-wall LNP seats for the city. The LNP candidate, Biance Stone, is a former Sunrise journalist who has campaigned hard on youth crime. |
| Who wants a free lunch? On Sunday, Miles announced ‘free lunch’ for all primary school students enrolled at a Queensland state school, estimated to cost taxpayers $1.4 billion. The initiative would start in 2025, and the Premier positioned the policy as a cost-of-living measure, with potential savings of up to $1,600 per year for parents. The announcement was a complete about-face from Labor’s position when the Greens proposed a similar policy. Back then, the then education minister and the current one slammed the policy as “simply irresponsible” and “trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist”. When asked what has changed for Labor to now support the policy, the Premier said, “I’m the Premier now”. While some families welcomed the commitment, there were a number of vocal critics, including those within the education sector. Members of the Queensland Associations of State School Principals were “appalled” with the President of the organisation saying he believed the government’s “priorities are wrong”. Some stakeholders said the funds would be better spent upgrading facilities and resources for schools and questioned the logistics of providing lunch to thousands of children. On Friday, the Premier released further details including a sample menu that included bolognese, pizza, muffins and beef chow mein noodles. He said the rollout would vary across regions with food provided by local canteens, NGOs, local cafes or Meals on Wheels. This policy announcement fits well with Miles’ other announcements like state-owned fuel stations, 50 state-owned GP clinics and another state-owned energy retailer. |
| 100-day Plan While the LNP has been heavily criticised for running a ‘small target’ campaign, their 100-day plan clearly outlines what they will deliver in the first week, month, by the end of 2024 and 100 days. This plan outlines more than 40 actions with the key priorities addressing what Crisafulli refers to as Queensland’s four major crises: youth crime, health, housing, and the cost of living. Key measures in the plan include: – Legislating the “Making Queensland Safer Laws” aimed at reducing youth crime. – Initiating programs such as “Regional Reset” and “Staying on Track” to divert and rehabilitate youth offenders. – Reviewing the state’s DNA lab issues, which have been controversial, to ensure justice for victims. – Scrapping Labor’s “Patients’ Tax” and abolishing stamp duty for first-time homebuyers, both aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures. Given the strong focus on North Queensland throughout the campaign, we were surprised to see the LNP launch the plan on the Gold Coast. However, in choosing the GC, it was fitting to choose the key seat of Gaven to make the announcement. |
| And briefly in federal political news… The government had a big announcement this week in the form of a crackdown on excessive card surcharges, which they were hoping would be seen as a positive move to put more of consumers’ money back in their pocket in the midst of a cost of living crisis. But it was overshadowed by news that broke earlier in the week that the PM had splashed out on a $4.3m beach pad on the Central Coast. While there of course is nothing wrong with the PM and his partner being in the fortunate position to make such a purchase, the optics of doing so in the middle of a crippling housing crisis – while taxpayers are picking up the tab for not one but two Prime Ministerial residences – are surely a bit off. In other news, strong employment figures out on Thursday confirmed most economists’ view that we won’t be seeing a rate cut this side of Christmas, with the Coalition lashing out at the sizeable growth in government-funded jobs. |