| As Queensland heads into a heated election campaign, the Prime Minister stopped in Cairns on his way out of the country yesterday to appear with Premier Steven Miles and make a housing announcement. The PM has now arrived in the US state of Philadelphia, where he will meet with Quad leaders from the US, India and Japan over the next couple of days. It wasn’t a great week for the government, losing control of its housing agenda as the Greens and Coalition continued to block key bills in the Senate. And employment figures released this week showed the economy continued to add jobs at pace, confirming inflationary pressures are still raging and giving weight to the RBA’s argument to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year. While the House of Representatives didn’t sit this week, there was a lot still riding on this week’s Senate sitting. Here’s your look at this week’s headlines. |
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| BCA attacks on government On Wednesday night the Prime Minister was forced to endure a scathing speech from both the CEO and President of the Business Council of Australia (BCA). The BCA represents most of the biggest companies in Australia and is a vocal advocate for less regulation, flexible employment laws and lower taxes. They have been known to spend millions on campaigns against government policies that don’t align with the needs of their members. Their annual dinner is a must attend event for Australia’s business leaders and politicians. While the Prime Minister and many of his cabinet colleagues, including the Treasurer, were in attendance, the Liberals were only represented by Paul Fletcher MP. However, after the spray from CEO Bran Black and President Geoff Culbert, we’re sure many Liberal politicians regretted not being in the room to hear the unprecedented criticism from the BCA. Our personal favourite part of Culbert’s speech was when he invoked US President Ronald Reagan’s maxim about taxation and said that Australia risked becoming a nation where “if it moved, you taxed it, if it keeps moving, you regulated it, and if it stops moving, you subsidised it”. Housing impasse sparks DD speculation The Albanese Government had just one KPI this Senate sitting week, and that was to pass their Help to Buy bill to introduce a shared equity scheme it says will make it easier for young Australians to buy homes. It’s one of two housing bills stuck in the Senate, with the Help to Buy bill having being introduced last year and passed by the House way back in February. The Greens and the Coalition oppose the bill for two very different reasons. The Coalition believe it’s bad policy, that it corporatises the market and gives up on the Australian dream of owning your own home. The Greens want any housing legislation to include a national rent freeze, more investment in public housing and an end to capital gains and negative gearing tax breaks for property investors. On Tuesday the Senate voted down the bill, providing the government with the first of two triggers for a double dissolution (DD) election – where every seat in the House and Senate is vacated at an election. Governments don’t usually put bills up for a vote in the Senate without first securing a deal and knowing it will pass, so it is unusual for this to happen, which is why speculation immediately went into overdrive that the PM was angling for a DD. Although he refused to rule out an early DD election, it’s highly unlikely the PM would pull this trigger based on where Labor is in the polls. The Senate could end up being even more unfavourable that it currently is if a host of crossbenchers are elected. The government hopes voters will punish the Greens and Coalition for playing politics with an important issue, but the reality is it’s the government who will wear the blame for spiralling rents and a housing affordability crisis if they can’t make progress. Minority government likely … but will it be Labor or Liberal? The federal election is due by 24 May 2025 and with new polls emerging weekly, it is virtually impossible to pick a frontrunner right now. Recent polls have favoured a minority government but up until this week that was a Labor minority government. However, the latest The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll has the Coalition leading Labor 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis. This represents a 4.1 percent swing towards the Coalition since the May 2022 election which if replicated uniformly at the next election, would deliver the Coalition 75 seats, which is one short of an absolute majority. Labor on the other hand would be reduced from 78 seats to as few as 65. In this instance, the Coalition would be forced to secure support from the crossbench which would most likely be Wentworth MP Allegra Spender. However, it is important to point out that swings are never uniform and the power of the Teals in incumbency is yet to be tested. Productivity Commission says childcare should be free for some The Treasurer last year asked the Productivity Commission (PC) to examine the early childhood education and care sector and was this week handed it’s report, along with 56 recommendations to improve the sustainability and affordability of the sector. There’s an old saying in government that you don’t commission a report if you don’t already know what it’s going to say, and the Albanese Government learned exactly why that’s the case this week. The government, which poured an extra $9 billion into childcare subsidies last year, is now being urged by the PC to spend another $5 billion a year on free childcare for families earning less than $80,000 – tapered down by 1 percentage point for every $5000 of adjusted taxable income over the minimum. The problem for Albanese, and his Education Minister Jason Clare, is that the government’s vision – and indeed, what Albanese has said he would love to be his legacy – is a different model. The government wants to implement a universal childcare system where every family receives a 90 per cent subsidy for their first child regardless of income or work status, and had asked the PC to examine that policy specifically in its review. In rejecting the government’s preferred model, the report has put the PM in a difficult position, and he had little to say this week other than that the government would examine the PC’s recommendations. Queensland As mentioned earlier, the Prime Minister made a flying stop in Cairns yesterday to stand up with the Premier and local candidates to promote a $400m housing project. Both leaders were questioned about funding contributions for the Bruce Highway, the terrible state of which has been highlighted in recent weeks by some shocking, fatal accidents. The Queensland Government this week said they were asking the Commonwealth to stump up $1bn for a Bruce Highway safety package, delivered in a 80:20 funding split that would see the state responsible for a $250m contribution. Queensland-based federal opposition leader Peter Dutton said the Coalition would reinstate the traditional 80:20 split, which was controversially changed to 50:50 last year. Queensland’s LNP leader David Crisafulli has said there needs to be a “long-term vision” to fix the safety issues on the Bruce Highway but has so far avoided making any specific funding commitments. New modelling released this week by the state government revealed it would cost $9bn to ensure every section of the Bruce Highway was rated at least three out of five stars for safety. The Queensland Government is spending $7bn on venues for the Olympic Games, leaving some to question whether that money would have been better spent on the much-needed road upgrades. Speaking of the Olympic Games, this week Crisafulli said the 2032 Brisbane Games was at risk of becoming an “embarrassment” and labelled Labor’s planned revamp of the main athletics hub as “horrendous”. Crisafulli had previously criticised the use of QSAC but on Wednesday he said the prospect of continuing with Labor’s plan for QSAC was “zilch”. He stopped short of providing an alternative and said it will be reviewed in the broader Olympic Games Infrastructure review which will take place within the first 100 days of an LNP government. And in news outside the bubble… In events that could have been taken straight out of the script of a Bond movie, Israel launched an extraordinary attack on Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah this week that saw thousands of pagers and walkie-talkie devices carried by Hezbollah operatives remotely detonated. While refusing to confirm or deny involvement in the surprise attack, Israel then launched intense strikes on southern Lebanon to clear the path for the safe return of Israelis along their northern border. It has significantly increased tensions in the region, with Hezbollah leaders labelling the device attacks a ‘declaration of war’ and the global community concerned it could see a rapid escalation in the conflict. Australians have been urged to leave Lebanon immediately. |