The Albanese Government has really battled through parliamentary sitting weeks this year, with immigration failures, bad economic news or Senate showdowns hampering any efforts to spruik their preferred narrative.
And this last sitting week before the winter break, a week they wanted to be talking about their suite of cost of living policies that came into effect on Monday, was completely derailed by Senator Fatima Payman.
The rookie senator’s long-winded divorce from the Labor Party dominated the news cycle from Sunday, when she appeared on ABC’s Insiders program, to Question Time yesterday when she called a press conference to announce her decision to sit on the crossbench.
So how will the Prime Minister use the winter break to force a reset heading into a critical period now less than 12 months out from the election? He’s canned a major international engagement to focus on issues here at home, and we’re predicting that if an expected ministerial reshuffle doesn’t come shortly, we’re headed to an early election.
Let’s get into this week’s parliamentary wrap.
Labor senator’s defection bad news for government
It’s becoming increasingly clear that former Labor senator Fatima Payman has for some time being planning her exit from the party. Whether she had planned to goad the Prime Minister into expelling her or if she had planned to defect all along is uncertain, but the senator was yesterday still claiming her decision was made this week and based on the way she had been treated by the PM and the parliamentary Labor team.
However, we now know Payman had met with minor party ‘preference whisper’ Glenn Druery and a group of Muslim community representatives well before she made a ‘snap’ decision to cross the floor of Parliament and vote against the government last week.
The Albanese Government now faces a considerable threat in the form of a grassroots community movement led by organisation ‘The Muslim Vote’ which aims to run a ‘teal-style’ campaign against Labor in key Western Sydney seats with large Muslim populations.
Although she is yet to confirm her involvement in any such movement, if Payman does lend her support to community groups across the country aiming to push voters towards local Muslim candidates or the Greens, it would be a powerful boost to their cause.
The seats being targeted are very strong Labor seats, many held by senior cabinet ministers like Tony Burke and Jason Clare. But let’s not forget most commentators didn’t expect the Coalition to lose seats like Wentworth, Goldstein and Kooyong at the last election – the Teals successfully harnessing community sentiment to oust former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg among other high-profile Liberals.
It could give the PM yet another reason to consider an early election this year, heading to the polls before local candidates get time on the ground to build support and make the case against Labor.
Early election speculation ramps up
Speaking of an early election, our eyebrows were certainly raised this week when Anthony Albanese confirmed Deputy PM Richard Marles would represent Australia at NATO next week in the US.
NATO summits are incredibly important for Australia and our region, and Australia – like New Zealand – is invited to attend as a non-NATO member ‘partner’. The Prime Minister has attended the previous two summits, last year stridently making the case for his attendance in the face of criticism of his heavy international travel schedule.
The Coalition has predictably slammed the decision, saying unless the PM has a very good reason, it is imperative he attend the important summit to meet with NATO leaders.
And while the opposition likely would have reserved the right to criticise the PM for travelling to the US while Australians grappled with a cost of living crisis at home, it is unusual for a Prime Minister to skip such an important international engagement with little to no explanation.
The Australian Financial Review’s Phil Coorey also reported this week on a new budget strategy which gives the Prime Minister and his office “flexibility” to scrap existing policies that have not yet been announced and repurpose the funds as they see fit.
It gives the PMO complete control over the MYEFO process and the opportunity to tweak or dump policies that don’t fit their election narrative.
We’re betting there’s either a reshuffle or an early election announcement brewing over this long winter parliamentary break.
Division over divestiture
The Coalition caught most off-guard this week when they announced a forced divestiture plan to break up the current supermarket monopoly. Even some members of the Liberal National party room were surprised and reported to have raised concerns about the policy.
On Tuesday, the Liberal and Nationals leaders fronted the media to announce that a Coalition Government would introduce “sector-specific divestiture powers as a last resort to manage supermarket behaviour and address supermarket price-gouging”. They say the powers would address issues around land banking, anti-competitive discounting and unfairly passing costs onto suppliers.
The Coalition found themselves an unusual ally in the Greens who announced their support for the policy. However, the government seized the opportunity to call out the opposition’s hypocrisy with the Prime Minister accusing the Liberals of outsourcing policy development to the Nationals.
Liberal backbencher Keith Wolahan admitted on sky News that there had been a “complex” debate in their party room meeting on Tuesday. However, media reports suggest there was a larger group, mainly from the centre-right faction, that led a “heated, passionate” discussion and questioned how the divestiture policy aligns with true liberal values.
Only time will tell if this ‘populist’ policy will benefit or harm the Opposition.
Future Made in Australia legislation introduced
The government this week introduced the long-awaited bill for their signature Future Made in Australia policy, which legislates a National Interest Framework that will determine how the government shells out the $22bn it has provisioned for projects that help the economy transition to net-zero or which contribute to our national security.
Hopes it would get the government’s narrative back on track were short-lived, with the news getting little traction in a week dominated by Labor’s messy internal politics.
It’s just one of several large pieces of legislation the government needs to get through Parliament before they head to an election, with a number of key election commitments yet to be implemented.
Progress on the religious discrimination bill has stalled, with religious groups this week urging Prime Minister Albanese to intervene to get it back on track or confirm that his government has dropped it as a priority.
Critical aged care reforms are also facing lengthy delays. The government has blamed a shortage of legislative drafters in the bureaucracy for some of the hold ups.
Ban on live sheep exports
This week the Australian Government, with the support of the Greens, legislated to end live sheep exports by 1 May 2028. The policy has been on the table for some time, with animal welfare organisations advocating for the ban for decades.
The industry conducted polling last year that showed this issue could be a vote-turner in WA with the majority supporting the live export trade. As such, sheep farmers have promised to build a massive war chest to campaign against Labor and will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars across three key seats in Western Australia.
‘Keep the Sheep’ has been established by industry stakeholders and they have already raised $416,000 for their campaign.
Agriculture Minister Murray Watt said he wasn’t concerned about the campaign against the government on this issue and said the timing of the introduction of the ban would “provide certainty, time and support”.
The Nationals have been very vocal in their opposition to the ban and committed to overturn the policy if they win government with the Liberals at the next election.
Midwinter Ball
Parliament House hosted the glamorous Midwinter Ball on Wednesday night with politicians from across the aisle bringing the glitz to a normally very formal building.
The parliamentary press gallery hosts the annual event to raise money for a variety of charities. The event provides unmatched access to Australia’s leaders so it is not surprising that corporate Australia line up to support and attend the star-studded event. In fact, there is a lengthy waiting list for sponsorship and tables which seems to grow each year.
Corporate Australia host politicians and staff on their tables while they enjoy humorous anecdotes from press gallery journalists. The Prime Minister also makes a speech which is intended to be humorous and completely off the record.
This year, attendees fought it out in the auction with the most in-demand item being lunch with the PM and his bride-to-be. While most politicians and their partners use the night to dress up and let their hairs down, independent Senator Lydia Thorpe once again used her outfit to stage a protest. We’re not going to repeat what she did because it doesn’t deserve the airtime or promotion.
Our picks for best dressed is a three-way tie. Laura Chalmers was stunning in blue while Kirilly Dutton was pretty in pink. And it wouldn’t be a midwinter ball without Peta Credlin topping the best dressed list, this year wearing a gorgeous strapless dress.
Queensland
The Miles Government held its Community Cabinet meeting on Bribie Island this week, in the Labor-held seat of Pumicestone. It used the event to announce the first major election commitment, that a re-elected Miles Government would build a new Bribie bridge at a cost of $700m.
It would duplicate the existing, two-lane 900m bridge, which the Premier said was necessary to cater for increased population and traffic volumes. However, the government was questioned about why they had committed funds for the project before a $4m business case had been completed. The Premier’s answer? “There’s an election coming up.”
Such refreshing honesty!
And as the campaign officially gets underway, LNP members are gathering in Brisbane this weekend for the party’s annual convention. Federal leaders Peter Dutton and David Littleproud will address members tomorrow, ahead of a closing address by David Crisafulli on Sunday.
Party leaders and elected representatives have been busy reminding members of the importance of unity in the lead up to the October poll. Premier-in-waiting Crisafulli and the rest of the parliamentary team will be hoping to get through the weekend without any major distractions.
And in news outside the bubble…
Labour’s Keir Starmer has delivered a victory speech at around 3am local time, with the United Kingdon voting to change the government, booting the conservatives out in an expected landslide.
However, the big story of the night is the unexpected success of Nigel Farage’s Reform party – the far-right party is on track to pick up at least 13 seats. Prior to the election, the party had just one MP, a conservative MP who defected. It echoes other strong results for far-right parties in European elections in recent weeks.
It’s a big year for elections, and in the US, all eyes have been on the Biden camp this week as the Democrats deal with the fallout from last week’s presidential debate. Biden’s performance was so bad it’s caused even staunch supporters like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to publicly question Biden’s health, with many speculating the leader of the free world is affected by dementia.
The Democrats are yet to formally endorse the President for the election, but it would be problematic to switch him out this late in the race. Vice President Kamala Harris is the obvious choice, but her polling against Trump is also disastrous and her performances nearly as underwhelming. However, Harris is the only candidate who could retain the $300m raised by the Biden-Harris campaign – as campaign financing laws prevent the funds from being used by any other contender.
Starting from scratch at this stage of the campaign would be a mega risk for the Democrats, but many believe sticking with Biden – or even switching to Harris – is equally as risky to their electoral prospects.